Cocoa is the fourth-largest agricultural export of Uganda after coffee, tea, and fish. It has steadily grown over the years and is now a lucrative enterprise for farmers, traders, exporters, and the Government of Uganda. In the financial year 2024/2025, exports reached approximately 75,000 metric tonnes of dry cocoa beans.

Over the last three years, farm-gate prices have ranged between UGX 15,000 and UGX 36,000 per kilogram. This has dramatically improved livelihoods, especially in districts such as Bundibugyo, Hoima, Mayuge, Mukono, and Buikwe, among others. There is also cross-border trade in cocoa through Mpondwe, Ntoroko, and Arua with the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Before 2023, dry cocoa beans were sold at UGX 7,000 to UGX 8,000 per kilogram, which was considered the normal price range. The unusually high prices experienced over the last three years the highest in over 50 years were driven by several factors. There was a significant supply deficit in West Africa due to extreme weather disruptions in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together produce about 60% of the world’s cocoa. In addition, disease outbreaks such as black pod and the cocoa swollen shoot virus caused a major supply deficit of about 400,000 tonnes.

Furthermore, European Union deforestation regulations affected supply patterns in the short to medium term. Speculation in financial markets during the supply shortages also contributed to what became known as the “cocoa crisis,” leading to very high prices. Aging cocoa trees and limited investment in West Africa further reduced productivity, exacerbating price increases.

The high demand for Ugandan cocoa has been attributed to its consistency and high quality, coupled with favorable global market trends. Uganda’s climatic conditions have supported better harvests compared to its peers, while value addition initiatives have also driven prices higher, increasing incomes and returns on investment (ROI).

The current downward trend in dry cocoa bean prices is largely due to improved supply forecasts in West Africa and significant demand destruction caused by high consumer prices. There is an estimated global surplus of between 180,000 and 300,000 metric tonnes in the 2025/2026 cocoa season.

Demand for cocoa products has declined, particularly in Asia and Europe, by up to 16%, largely due to the high cost of finished products such as chocolate and cocoa powder. Additionally, reduced speculation in financial markets where investors have shifted from net long to net short positions has contributed to the price decline.

The use of alternatives and product reformulation, including shrinkflation, has further reduced cocoa demand. Fearing further price drops, exporters have increased sales, leading to stockpiling and higher inventory levels, which in turn exert downward pressure on prices.

However, structural supply challenges persist, including aging trees, disease outbreaks such as cocoa swollen shoot virus, and limited investment in West Africa. Prolonged dry seasons could reduce yields by 8–10%, potentially reversing the current downward trend.

In the long term, demand for cocoa especially for chocolate in emerging markets and premium segments is expected to remain strong, supporting prices. Other producing countries such as Ecuador and Indonesia will also play a role in shaping global supply dynamics.

Despite current fluctuations, cocoa remains a highly lucrative crop in Uganda. The country has a competitive advantage due to its fertile soils, consistent rainfall, and favorable agronomic conditions. By adopting good agricultural practices such as weeding, pruning, mulching, and the use of organic manure, as well as irrigation, productivity can increase significantly.

Currently, a cocoa tree in Uganda produces between one and two kilograms per year, while improved farms yield up to five kilograms. With optimal practices, yields could reach up to ten kilograms per tree. This means that even at lower prices, farmers’ incomes could more than double due to increased productivity.

Uganda’s cocoa is naturally organic, with a superior bean count compared to many other countries. This positions it well to maintain strong demand. However, improved post-harvest handling is essential this includes proper fermentation, drying, sorting, and storage to reduce losses and enhance quality.

Value addition initiatives must also be strengthened. Uganda already has a few chocolate artisans who should be supported and expanded to boost local processing and increase export value.
The government should continue to promote cocoa production nationwide through strategic initiatives and partnerships. Projects such as the Coffee and Cocoa Value Chains Development (CoCoDev), supported by the European Union and the Government of Uganda, are making significant contributions in this regard.

The development of commercial farmers and the growing expertise within the sector will encourage wider participation and strengthen the industry.
As government, farmers, and stakeholders, there is a need for collective stewardship to maximize returns on cocoa investment. Strengthening the manufacturing side of the value chain, improving branding, and understanding consumer patterns will help mitigate price volatility and build confidence among stakeholders.

By focusing on sustainability, productivity, and ethical practices, Uganda can create a resilient cocoa supply chain that secures the future of the sector while maximizing value for all stakeholders.

Written by:
Maniraguha Emmanuel
Presidential Cocoa Medalist, Cocoa Expert, Farmer, Entrepreneur
Chairman, Uganda Cocoa Development Association
Managing Director, True Cocoa (U) Limited
Stakeholder in multiple cocoa initiatives across East Africa.