In its own way, Katonga’s failure under Elias Lukwago ranks as one of the country’s worst-ever political abortions, writes Nathan Kikku Mubiru, and leaves serious questions at every level of the faction.
Some predictions don’t stand the test of time. It is a little under a year since Wasswa Birigwa declared it was Elias Lukwago’s destiny to lead the FDC. It seemed likelier that he might take charge of Katonga first, a capital formation expressing an interest in hiring him. Instead, his destiny shifted at FDC in July 2023; Besigye’s deceit ratified Katonga’s death.
Despite a July-to-November media revival, it had felt inevitable for months. But for interparty rumblings in NUP and DP, Katonga would have been cast further adrift sooner. Yet if the reality that Tubalemese and Red card front, promoted by them, also booked their death tickets earlier, would suggest they were powerless to prevent it, that the gulf between the demands is too much to bridge, Katonga were a different case.
In its own way, theirs ranks as one of the country’s worst-ever abortions. A group who got several high end leaders, basic mobilisation failures are rarities, though DP and UPC were in that group a decade ago, but this year Katonga are weaker.
Their consultative process has been an exercise in naivety. They were naive in blackmail, naive on the decision making and, by extension, naive in the boardroom. Their campaign may have been summed up by two events; Wasswa Birigwa’s comical fence wall climb. They lost at Najjanankumbi because of unfunny theatrics. They lost further credibility at Katonga because of a ludicrous comedy by the former ambassador.
If the propensity to give credibility away in silly fashion was summed up by the week when Lukwago was declared party president by an illegal, non existent national council sittting and then allowing a Mike Kabaziruka to carry out sham grassroot elections, there were plenty of others; if Katonga could have even halved the number of avoidable concessions, they might have stood a chance otherwise they went down in dull fashion.
And if most are the product of a more ambitious style of opposition, which sometimes earned plaudits, too often Katonga are not good enough at it, undermining themselves, perhaps overestimating their own ability to carry it off. Rewind to December 2018 and Besigye argued Museveni would be ousted in 2019, “a year of action”. He was very wrong.
Yet if they were the opposition group who forgot the basics, they also lost some of the essence of their success.
If idealism is the recurring theme in Katonga’s blueprint, naivety is a common denominator in the autopsy of their bid. They underestimated the struggle. So did Besigye, who achieved it as a medical officer, political commisar in NRA/M ranks and has gone down from it as a leader. He may get no such enticing opportunities again pith the advent of Kyagulanyi. But with Besigye’s stamp on this group, maybe another leader would not have kept them vibrant either.
But the sense of failure should be shared. Lukwago has had two full terms as a deputy. Katonga have failed in both. Given the size of the struggle and the challenges the opposition sides face, it was always a possibility. But, with retirements surely required and most of Katonga’s leaders’ values depreciating, failure looks particularly damaging. Their consultation process to leave FDC amounts to a very expensive mistake.
